Learning Without Logic
The result? We often “learn” without logic, and so we often walk away from great ideas. The Apple Newton failed, leading many to say that there was no market for smart handheld devices - yet now we all own them. Early attempts at remote alarm systems failed, leading many to conclude that such services could not be profitable; now they are commonplace. Even internet search, possibly the most lucrative business in history, was initially panned after a spate of failures among early movers — Lycos, Alta Vista, Excite, and others. Often firms fail. But that may not mean, logically, that we should abandon their business models entirely.
To diagnose well, we need to systematically contrast failures and successes - as is done in good academic research. The popular maxim “fail fast and cheap,” A/B testing, agile development, root-cause analysis and similar approaches are designed to show us successes and failures without destroying the firm. These techniques routinely are used in Silicon Valley firms these days, and are making their way into the global business lexicon. Sometimes such techniques are very effective for learning. But keep in mind that these techniques simply provide us with data. It is up to us to explain the data, and that requires logic.